|  Replicon Group  Newsletter Q1 2009   |         www.replicongroup.com

** New book on Web2.0 launched
Social Media Marketing
Authors: A. Jaokar, B. Jacobs, A. Moore

and J. Ahvenainen

"Social Media Marketing" is the start of a conversation about marketing communications using social media forms – including internet sites and mobile telecommunication sources. Social media and social media business models are still looking for their shapes. Ecosystems, earning models, and funding structures have many open questions.

       The book discusses the importance of data and analytics both in helping to monetise these media, and in improving the way that the owners of these media market themselves. Marketers wishing to communicate with customers or potential customers via social media need to adopt a new set of skills and techniques to be effective. The need for dialogue and involvement, for engagement, is paramount. This book discusses solutions that allow marketers to target and measure their activities within social media.

** FOCUS ON US intra year growth and implications to the financial markets, P. Hirvonen

…

In this Update we focus on the outlook for the US economy. US GDP was approximately 14,300 billion USD in year 2008. From that figure one can calculate that the 800 bn$ fiscal stimulus package planned by Obama’s government is roughly 5.5% compared to the total GDP.

In Replicon’s medium scenario for US economy we have assumed that fiscal and other stimulus packages will boost US total demand by 1.5 % this year and this positive effect will mostly be “felt” during the second half of the year. We expect US personal consumption expenditure to slump by 4 % yoy in 2009 and private investments to fall by 10 %. (PCE makes roughly 70% of the GDP and private investments one tenth.)

Exceptionally negative development of US consumption is the result of rising unemployment and increased savings rate. Weak housing sector and stock market makes consumers feel less affluent and this negative wealth effect pressures consumption. Lower gas and other commodity prices will on the other hand increase purchasing power of consumers. Additionally towards the end of 2009 fiscal stimulus, partially in the form of tax cuts will also likely boost consumer demand. Nevertheless the overall US growth for year 2009 will be clearly in minus territory.

      …

(Full report: http://www.replicon.fi/Economic_Outlook_Q12009.htm)